“Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face”

— Mike Tyson

20260701 Npb Db

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Today’s super-quick QuiCQ is not about ICYMI, but rather ICYMM (In Case You Missed Me). As Mike Tyson famously said in today’s Quote-of-the-Day, we all have different ideas on how our day/week/year/life will go. This is also true for this timid editor of your favourite newsletter, and instead of releasing multiple letters this week, I have been confined to a room with a view for the past few (and next few) days:

But, just to let you know I am still here, here a short QuiCQ, with nothing but a few charts I found interesting enough to share. So, no specific market observations today, just “chicken soup for the chartist’s soul”.

For example, we were all wondering why Chinese Tech (KWEB - KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF) is lagging so much the Global Tech stocks (IXN - iShares Global Tech ETF):

Well, maybe we were looking at the wrong (KWEB) instead of the correct (KSTR - KraneShares SSE Star 50 Market ETF) one:

Another amazing chart is the one of Cybersecurity stocks (CIBR) in comparison to Software stocks (IGV - grey line) and the tech sector as a whole (XLK - red line):

Versus other software stocks, cybersecurity shares are at a decade relative high, whilst at the same time the are close a decade-low versus the general tech sector.

On another note, the USD/JPY hit its highest level since …. drumroll …1986!!

Are we in for another August 2024 carry-trade scare this summer?

And to finalize this brief letter, here’s a chart I showed before. It shows that we may be entering the eye of the storm before the mid-term volatility starts in August:

The above seasonal graph is further underlined by the following data-mining statistic: The S&P 500 has made 20+ new highs in the first six months of the year. On previous, similar occasions, the SPX has never peaked before August, and the full year has been positive 100% of the time.”

And to take full advantage of that possible up month, we should probably go full beta momentum tech, where seasonality seems strongest, at least during the first half of the month:

What to watch today? Well, the possible release of the month-end edition of The Quotedian of course! Sign up below if you have not yet done so:

Sign me up to the only true free lunch !

Be safe,

André

• Everything in this document is for educational purposes only (FEPO)

• Nothing in this document should be considered investment advice

• Investing real money can be costly; don’t do stupid shit

• Leave politics at the door—markets don’t care.

• Past performance is hopefully no indication of future performance

• The views expressed in this document may differ from the views published by NPB Neue Privat Bank AG

"When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?"

— John Maynard Keynes

20260624 Npb Db

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Yesterday, equity investors faced presumably a steep sell-off, as they faced a nearly one-and-a-half percent sell-off in the S&P 500 and a 2.2% drop in the Nasdaq.

But did they really?

As a matter of fact, more sectors in the S&P 500 were up (6) than down (5):

Similarly, more stocks were up (285) than down (217) and more stocks made a new 52-week high (20) than a new 52-week low (10) - see the latter statistic below:

Hence, let’s define yesterday’s market action less as a market sell-off than an AI margin call, which is also very well visualised in the S&P’s heatmap:

In any case, the initiator for the tech sell-off seems to have a couple of news items out of Korea, where for example the regulators issued a warning on leveraged ETFs. Nearly simultaneously, SK Hynix, a memory-chip maker said it was “shifting its focus to the general-purpose DRAM market”, which not only raised concerns about future profit margins for the company (DRAM is a low margin business), but also sent US memory-chip makers into a tailspin

—> Micron 13%, SanDisk 14%, Western Digital 8%, Seagate 5%, Roundhill Memory ETF 14%.

For the less high-frequency investors amongst us, our well-defined “lines in the sand” continue to rule our “action plan”:

The broader European equity market (SXXP) has been able to hold above support (previous resistance - dashed line), which can be considered a positive:

Nothing to report back from interest rate markets, but the coiling formation (dashed line) in the chart of the US 10-year treasury yield chart suggests that this may change in the coming days:

In FX markets we already have seen a break-out move, and whilst it is not the side we were “hoping” for, it is what it is … The EUR/USD broke below 1.1400 yesterday, absent a very quick recovery above again, the path is open to somewhere around the 1.10 handle:

Always remember Keynes (see above: QOTD)

Finally, the stronger US Dollar is also pushing Gold lower towards our initial price target around of $/oz 3,900:

Yesterday I posted the following chart on LinkedIn (click here),

with the promise to resolve it today. Well, here’s the updated version:

Now, what is important to remember is that this is about direction and not amplitude, but still … stay tuned!!

• Everything in this document is for educational purposes only (FEPO)

• Nothing in this document should be considered investment advice

• Investing real money can be costly; don’t do stupid shit

• Leave politics at the door—markets don’t care.

• Past performance is hopefully no indication of future performance

• The views expressed in this document may differ from the views published by NPB Neue Privat Bank AG

“Well, we will be there, as I said earlier on, using full flexibility, but we are not here to close spreads. This is not the function or the mission of the ECB. There are other tools for that, and there are other actors to actually deal with those issues.”

— Christine Lagarde, ECB Governing Council press conference, 12 March 2020

20260618 Npb Db

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I have a very early (07:30) appointment this morning, so I will just super-briefly leave few bullet point comments on yesterday’s premier of Kevin Warsh as new Fed Boss:

• He’s a game changer

• He is hawk. The market new it but chose to talk it down - until yesterday

• Forward guidance is dead

• He wants to shake ‘things’ up, having announced five task forces to work on the following into year end:

  • (i) communication;

  • (ii) the balance sheet/operating system;

  • (iii) alternative data sources;

  • (iv) productivity, jobs and artificial intelligence;

  • (v) the inflation framework

Equities didn’t like it:

Bonds didn’t like it:

The Dollar loved it:

The one thing that has raised my eye-brow, though I could not confirm nor re-find the source, was a comment that Warsh did not care about short-term market movements due to his policy decisions, rather he is focused on long-term goals. This reminds me so much of ECB Boss Lagarde’s comments in 2020, her first meeting has head of that institution. The bond market quickly tested that resolve, which quickly dissolved.

Famous last words …

How many times did we hear that Kevin Warsh was the most hawkish of the possible candidates for the Fed chair, just then to be subsequently redressed as a dove once he was elected, mostly on the argument of “who would want to upset Uncle Donald anyway”.

Well, as the three day plot of the rate hike expectations into year end via Futures markets shows, adaption to reality was necessary, with expectation for hikes doubling:

Have a great Thursday!

André

• Everything in this document is for educational purposes only (FEPO)

• Nothing in this document should be considered investment advice

• Investing real money can be costly; don’t do stupid shit

• Leave politics at the door—markets don’t care.

• Past performance is hopefully no indication of future performance

• The views expressed in this document may differ from the views published by NPB Neue Privat Bank AG

“If you have a problem with me, text me. And if you don’t have my number, you don’t know me well enough to have a problem with me.”

— Christian Bale

Yesterday’s session felt a bit like this:

Whilst the stock was up ‘only’ five percent by the time of closing, down from an intraday high of up nearly 20%,

it seems the buyers of SPCX financed their purchases by selling their chip-making stocks contingent, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor index (SOX), down about by the same percentage points:

Noticeably, not a single stock in the SOX was up on the day:

The S&P 500 dropped a more timid half a percentage point on the day, and remains stuck between our upper and lower lines in the sand, as discussed in last weekend’s Quotedian (click here):

Whilst we remain disciplined and wait for a clear breakout on either side before fulling adding or reducing equity risk, we continue to think the break will be to the upside, given that several indices have either hit a new ATH or at least a new cycle high already, including the S&P 500 equal-weight index, the Russell 2000 small-cap or even the very broad Valueline Geometric index (VALUG - see below):

As previously discussed, European stocks (SXXP) have also reach new ATHs,

however, the spread between good (e.g. IBEX) and less good (e.g. DAX) is becoming very meaningful:

Turning very briefly to bond markets, where the world is waiting for tonight’s appearance of Mr Kevin Warsh as new Chairman of the Fed (also see the WTW section below).

The US 10-year yield continues at the very lower end of the pennant (flag) formation I highlighted on Sunday and whilst I continue to believe that rates will move higher over the next few months to years, the next immediate move could be lower:

This is also we I mentioned a possible tactical long trade on the TLT:

Coming into an (IT-related) time crunch, let me just highlight yesterday’s decision by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to increase rates by 0.25% to 1%, with two comments.

1. Whilst a policy rate of 1% does not sound like a lot, it is the highest since 1995 (that’s 30-years+ for you):
   

   

   
   

2. That rate hike helped exactly ZERO to strength the Japanese Yen, which continues to hover around BoJ/MoF intervention levels at 160:
   

   

Two very illustrative charts on inflation and global interest rates from John Authers at Bloomberg. I do not think a lot of additional explanation is needed here.

On inflation around the Globe:

And on Global Interest Rates:

For today, all eyes on Mr Warsh’s post-FOMC press conference, which will likely turn out to be a big, fat nothing burger. With the Iran conflict largely out of his way now, there will be little need for hawkish talk, which might have upset Uncle Donald.

Clearly, no hike is expected:

But equally clearly, the easing cycle has ended, not only in the US,

but for developed markets around the globe:

That’s all for today - apologies for the shortened version - but … dog ate my homework IT was a struggle this morning.

Andr

• Everything in this document is for educational purposes only (FEPO)

• Nothing in this document should be considered investment advice

• Investing real money can be costly; don’t do stupid shit

• Leave politics at the door—markets don’t care.

• Past performance is hopefully no indication of future performance

• The views expressed in this document may differ from the views published by NPB Neue Privat Bank AG

"Anyone can make a mistake, but only a fool perseveres in error."

— Cicero

20260612 Npb Db

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And then they say that rising a key monetary policy rate does little to stem of higher energy prices resulting from a war … HA! Wrong! Look no further than yesterday, where the courageous European Central Bank (aka BuBa) increased their Deposit Facility rate by 25bp to 2.25% … et voila … only a few hours later the US announced (yet again) the end of the Iran conflict.

In any case, and without the intention of turning this fine newsletter into a meme-parody-paper (MPP), what a week it has been!!

And all this excitement for nada really, as we are quite precisely where we had started the week:

Of course, zooming out on the same chart of the S&P 500 to get a daily candle view, we note that we are still within this small correction:

However, the bounce on the 50-day moving average (greenishl ine) yesterday, is very encouraging and a close only a few basis points higher today would increase our confidence that the worst may be over.

So, is there any difference between this (one-sided) deal announcement as compared to all the other previous (one-sided) ones? Well, Axios reported that they think this one may indeed be different from the others, with “sources” saying that “gaps have been narrowed” on key issues like unfreezing Iranian assets, the process for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and how negotiations surrounding Iran’s nuclear program would be conducted.

I think that could be true, given the reaction in the price of crude oil futures (Brent):

Asian markets this morning are also trying to believe that this one is the one (still referring to the US/Iran deal):

We also had US PPI numbers, which were as expected at the upper end of expectations, i.e.g flagging inflationary risks:

However, bonds thought it is safe to ignore those numbers though, but rather concentrated on the supposedly deflationary impact from an end of the war, which is of course, pure fantasy.

(oh, another meme gif - this is really turning into a MPP!)

Here’s the chart of the US10-year yield, where 4.43% is the pivot-point to watch:

Looking the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF as a proxy for bond prices, a tactical long trend may offer itself here:

As mentioned further up, the ECB hiked their key policy rate yesterday, god and Lagarde knows why …

But at least that gives me the opportunity to update my ECB “track record” chart, which could easily be named “The Library of Policy Mistakes”:

SpaceX starts trading today … watching the financial news press, nothing else seems to matter today. So be it.

Have a great weekend and …

André

• Everything in this document is for educational purposes only (FEPO)

• Nothing in this document should be considered investment advice

• Investing real money can be costly; don’t do stupid shit

• Leave politics at the door—markets don’t care.

• Past performance is hopefully no indication of future performance

• The views expressed in this document may differ from the views published by NPB Neue Privat Bank AG

"I can calculate the motion of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of men."

— Isaac Newton

20260611 Npb Db

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US inflation numbers were published yesterday, and despite the headline number (4.2%) moving above that ominous four percent, markets were pretty relaxed about it. Here are the 2-year US Breakeven (grey) and the 2-year US Inflation Swap (red) as examples of relaxation:

Is that “laissez-faire” approach to the inflation number then justified? Well, sure, a big component of the increase was energy prices, which arguably is well baked into the investors’ collective consciousness, and, of course, are the prospects of the Iran/US conflict ending (ehemm) bright … realistic … possible … feasible not zero. Nevertheless, energy was not the only contributor to that elevated inflation number, but so was services and that stubborn food price inflation is not going away either:

By the way, that black, dashed line in the chart above is a cheeky reminder of what the Fed’s inflation target is … it is beating that by more than double 🫣

A glance at equity markets shows that they decided to sell-off once again yesterday, but probably less “high CPI number, hence, higher tighter monetary policy ahead”, but rather, on the back of resurgence of kinetic warfare action in the Middle East. Here’s the chart of the S&P 500 mini-futures over the past hours:

There you go! Don’t they say a picture is worth more than a thousand words?

What is not shown on this picture, nor evident if you only look at the top left of our dashboard above,

is that under the hood, which is depicted in the bottom left of the dashboard,

“things” actually continue to look pretty constructive.

None of those massive sell-offs over the past week or so,

has shown any massive capitulation. Quite “au contraire”, during some of the darkest hours, either more stocks were rising than falling, or like yesterday in the US for example (see above), more stocks hit a new 52-week high than a new 52-week low.

Now, two things can happen from here:

1. The “rest of the market” is strong enough to counterbalance the sell-off in those large-cap, momentum-driven stocks, and eventually moves higher again.

2. The sell-off, which started in those market-cap-heavyweights, spreads to the rest of the markets and starts dragging everything else down.

For now, I am giving those scenarios a 65% (1) weighting and a 35% (2) weighting, respectively…

Looking at other asset classes, we can of course expect the movement in oil prices over the past hours to be the mirror image of equity prices:

Indeed.

Another cross-asset class we briefly need to talk about is Gold, on which we already had a bearish chat yesterday (and over the several past weeks now). For us here on the Investment Committee at NPB, the price action in the yellow metal has now been negative enough to reduce our exposure even further, by exiting the position for the time being alltogether. I will be writing a detailed note about the decision later today and post a link to it in tomorrow’s Daily Quotedian (aka QuiCQ). So, make sure to STAY TUNED!

So, here we are, Thursday June 11th, where the largest ever IPO will get priced (starts trading tomorrow). We already expressed my opinion regarding buying into a stock priced at a price/sales ratio of nearly 100x, so no need to repeat my disgusts.

Hence, I leave you just with this infograph,

and the observation that we should be watching like a hawk whether these IPOs make money for PUBLIC MARKET investors vs treating them as “Exit Liquidity” for the PRIVATE MARKETS.

Unfortunately, I know the answer already.

Do not ignore today’s US PPI number:

André

• Everything in this document is for educational purposes only (FEPO)

• Nothing in this document should be considered investment advice

• Investing real money can be costly; don’t do stupid shit

• Leave politics at the door—markets don’t care.

• Past performance is hopefully no indication of future performance

• The views expressed in this document may differ from the views published by NPB Neue Privat Bank AG

“Pressure can burst a pipe, or pressure can make a diamond.”

— NBA champion Robert Horry (aka "Big Shot Rob")

Remember that famous March 6th 2009, bottom in the S&P 500, a day where the index had hit a devilish intraday low of 666?

Well, what if, and only what if, that 2.6.2026 (so far) ATH closing high at 30,660.6 was devilish enough to mark the end of the entire 27-year secular bull run?

Just imagine!

Anyway, taking my tin-foil hat off again, let’s have a look at some of the price movements over the past twenty-four hours or so…

Yesterday, felt very much like a repeat of Friday … with stocks down strongly in headlines (though admittedly a respectable bounce took place in the late hours of US trading), but looking under the hood gave more positive picture. In parts…

Here’s the intraday chart of the Nasdaq-100, down well over five per cent from its peak about an hour after the European market close:

By sheer lack of having anything else to do, I actually checked in on the sector performance right about at the time of those lows and found a surprising (or not) sector performance table for the S&P 500, which differed only in numbers from the one we had by the time of the closing bell:

In other words, the entire sell-off was coming out of two sectors, which is then also reflected in a nearly 3:1 ratio of advancers (371) versus decliners (131), leaving us with a heatmap where green dominated, at least in terms of ‘most seen’:

(Note to self: somehow I feel that passive, market-cap-weight thematic will dominate investment news headlines over the coming months to years).

As we showed in a chart in the weekly Quotedian, dubbed “June Swoon" (click here), in (US election) mid-term years, we are now in “the difficult period” - check out the chart-of-the-day further down.

A possible target for the current ‘correction’ is around 7,000 on the S&P 500, as we also highlighted in our weekly issue published on Monday. Here’s the update version of that chart, with the dotted points being possible zones of support:

Please note: Target ≠ Forecast

Another asset class that was on the move yesterday, with follow through in Asian trading this morning, was Gold:

Right now, including today’s candle, which is the most far-right one on the chart above, the yellow metal has broken just about any key support.

As things stand, it is difficult to come up with a bullish chart right now and this one looks particularly ugly:

Albeit negative now, Gold is still the most precious amongst the precious metals on a year-to-date basis:

The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to creep towards the upper end of its year-long plus trading range:

Today’s chart-of-the-day shows the average monthly returns for all calendar months in US midterm election years going back over 100 years (1922):

Clearly, returns have decreased, and volatility increased in the months leading up to the November elections, which was then followed by a year-end rally. For comparison, here’s the same statistical chart going back to the beautiful year of 1970 (aka modern times) only:

Clearly, today’s market focus will be on the US CPI number:

Generally, a number above 4% is considered as possibly difficult for equity markets …

In that context:

André

• Everything in this document is for educational purposes only (FEPO)

• Nothing in this document should be considered investment advice

• Investing real money can be costly; don’t do stupid shit

• Leave politics at the door—markets don’t care.

• Past performance is hopefully no indication of future performance

• The views expressed in this document may differ from the views published by NPB Neue Privat Bank AG

"By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens."

— John Maynard Keynes

20260529 Npb Db

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Is the zig-zaging and the Tuesday TACOing finally coming to an end? Bloomberg’s top headline this morning reads:

“Stocks scaled to a record and oil dropped after the US and Iran reached a tentative deal to extend their ceasefire, pending President Donald Trump’s signoff.”

To which the equity market probably would reply with a sarcastic: “No shit!”

Up nearly 20% in since early April and hitting a new all-time high yesterday, I think it is safe to say that the global investor already decided a while ago that such a deal would be reached.

But it was not only the largest cap indices such as the S&P 500 (below), the Nasdaq or the Dow Jones Industrial in the US, all reaching new ATHs yesterday,

but also smaller cap stocks,

but even more importantly from a European-focused investor’s point-of-view, local indices such as the DAX are about (today?) to do the same:

Meanwhile, the market safely ignored a warning from ExxonMobil that oil inventories will fall to record lows in the coming weeks, possibly pushing oil prices as high as $150 per barrel.

Also, the market “thinks” that yes, inflation readings are higher (PCE yesterday), but are in checkers and even slightly less then assumed by those infallible economists:

But the longer-term point is that inflation has not gone back to the Fed’s target rate in over five years and has started heading the wrong direction again:

But even the bond market ignored that yesterday:

There’s a good chance for bond prices moving higher over the next few sessions, with a yield target of around 4.35-ish.

Nothing specific happening on the (fiat) currency side, but maybe worth highlighting that Bitcoin should hold above 72,000, otherwise the technical picture de-proves substantially:

Gold, despite this morning’s bounce, is also somewhat under pressure, with 4,370 the clear line in the sand for the bulls (and the bears):

Stock markets are hitting new ATHs and some segments are seeing frothy valuations and even frothier investors animal instinct behaviour. In my view, a violent correction over the coming weeks (mid-June?) is becoming a likelihood.

HOWEVER, yesterday saw the Value Line Geometric Index (VALUG). an index widely viewed as a gauge of the median stock's performance, break out to new all-time highs:

Translated this means that breadth is broadening, i.e. more stocks are participating in the rally and is further supported by recent breakouts in the equal-weight indices of the S&P, the Nasdaq and the Dow.

SO…

Should we get that correction over the coming weeks, gather all your courage and BTFD!

Really nothing to highlight from the economic calendar today, with maybe the exception of German regional and nationwide inflation numbers being released.

There is a high likelihood of NO daily updates next week, but there should be a Weekly Quotedian out on Monday morning. So, check your inbox for that and if you have not yet signed up to the original, weekly Quotedian… shame on you!

Shame on me! Let me in, please!

May the Force be With Me.

• Everything in this document is for educational purposes only (FEPO)

• Nothing in this document should be considered investment advice

• Investing real money can be costly; don’t do stupid shit

• Leave politics at the door—markets don’t care.

• Past performance is hopefully no indication of future performance

• The views expressed in this document may differ from the views published by NPB Neue Privat Bank AG

"A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you're talking about real money.”

— attributed to Everett Dirksen

The very exclusive club of One-Trillion-Dollar-Market-Cap companies has just become a little tiny weeny less exclusive as it added a few more members this week:

And here’s the Market Cap chart of those 15 select club members:

Maybe it’s time for some Magnificent 7-style name giving for that club. My suggestion: The 4CC, which stands for The Four Comma Club. What’s your view on that nomenclature? Vote here:

The club is currently clearly dominated by semiconductor companies, which as we know, are devilishly cyclical, so the constituents may change over time. Having said that, the AI build-out phase is in full swing and price movements of involved companies are producing me flashbacks to the hay-days of the Dotcom bubble. The question is of course: are we 1996 or 1999? If we overlay the Dotcom bubble with the Roaring Twenties theory (which says that we are re-living the Roaring Twenties from a century ago) we are probably closer to 96 … fingers crossed.

To yesterday’s (equity) session, we saw tech stocks, as fore-mentioned, very bid with the Nasdaq 100 closing up over 1%, whilst the S&P 500 rose a more muted but still respectable 0.6%. Breadth was not great, with about the same number of stocks rising and falling in the S&P 500, leaving us with a very fragmented market heat map:

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) feels extended, to put it mildly, but I ain’t standing in front of that steamroller!

Bond yields have continued to soften, as much in the US,

as also in Europe:

Now that we have that 4CC club growing, we can either shake our fist at the cloud, or, embrace it as true “hail Mary” to save us from purchasing power deterioration destruction. Please refer to the COTD below …

Over the last 30 years, the purchasing power of the US Consumer Dollar has been cut in half due to inflation. At the same time, the S&P 500 has gained 828% (7.7% per year) AFTER adjusting for inflation. Why you need to invest for the long run, in one chart…

A pretty light agenda today across all themes - economic data, earnings, central bank speak, etc.

Hence, the burden to entertain us lies on President Trump and his social network posts. Fingers crossed he saves us from boredom.

May the Trend be with You!

• Everything in this document is for educational purposes only (FEPO)

• Nothing in this document should be considered investment advice

• Investing real money can be costly; don’t do stupid shit

• Leave politics at the door—markets don’t care.

• Past performance is hopefully no indication of future performance

• The views expressed in this document may differ from the views published by NPB Neue Privat Bank AG

"We are our choices."

— Jean-Paul Sartre

20260522 Npb Db

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Yes, I know.

What the heck am I doing sending out a Quotedian - Daily Edition on a late Friday afternoon. Most of us are sitting somewhere in the sun already, or are drunk, or in the optimal case, both.

However, I did not want to send you off into the weekend with reminding you of (at least) two dilemas President Trump has this weekend…

Firstly, with his son’s (Donald Trump Jr.) wedding scheduled for this weekend, he will have to decide whether to double-down on Iran or attend his son’s nupitals. In that respect he said in an interview earlier today:

“This is not good timing for me,” the president said. “I have a thing called Iran.”

Secondly, with his son’s (Donald Trump Jr.) wedding scheduled for this weekend, he will have to decide whether to move into Cuba to remove Raoul Castro out of Cuba. As a reminder, the appearance of a US air strike carrier coincided with the criminal indicement, both conveniently this week. I am not sure where to place the air quotes on the following, but basically 94-year old Castro was charged by the Feds for the 1996 shoot-down of two civilian planes that killed four people, including three Americans.

So, what will it be Mr President? War or Wedding?

On a completely unrelated note, I have been telling my colleagues over the past weeks that in the past 40 years, whenever “Space” as an investment became a thing again, it was the end to the ongoing rally/bubble. However, I also insisted on using the four most expensive words in investing by repeatadly saying: “This time is different”.

Well, The Economist just came to jinx it all and throw a dozen of raw eggs on my face:

That’s all folks! May the Trend be With You, or, maybe more fittingly and in honour of the apparently franchise-damaging release of The Mandalorian and Grogu … THIS IS THE WAY!

André

• Everything in this document is for educational purposes only (FEPO)

• Nothing in this document should be considered investment advice

• Investing real money can be costly; don’t do stupid shit

• Leave politics at the door—markets don’t care.

• Past performance is hopefully no indication of future performance

• The views expressed in this document may differ from the views published by NPB Neue Privat Bank AG

"It is not greed that drives the world, but envy."

— Charlie Munger

20260521 Npb Db

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So, NVDA came, reported and sold off … a little bit. I guess it is tough to get too bearish on a company that reports an 85% year-on-year revenue growth (blue bars) and a 75% gross profit margin (white line),

despite still lofty valuations, expressed via for example a 20x price/to sales ratio (which admittedly has halved since the >40 levels two years ago):

In any case, NVDA’s numbers should be good enough to confirm to the market that the AI infrastructure build-out is still in full swing and on par with some of humanities largest building projects:

I would even go as far as saying that the current AI infrastructure building boom is on par with the Roman Roads build-out some over 2000 years ago, but unfortunately data is slightly fuzzy back in that period 😉

Breadth in yesterday’s session was leaning strongly bullish (see dashboard) and the chart of the S&P 500 would visually suggest that the “correction” may be already over:

Even, let me repeat that, EVEN, European stocks are showing signs of life again, and the SXXP only needs a few basis points to become extremely constructive:

Probably also helpful to multi-asset portfolios yesterday was that bond yields started coming of their recent highs (US 10 Year Yield below),

which helped a strongly battered bond market (proxied via 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF below):

Funnily enough, it was probably a hawkish sounding Fed that brought bond yields lower, which brings us already to today’s chart of the day:

The Fed released minutes from their April 29th FOMC meeting yesterday, and as the chart below shows, the dovish (greenish) and hawkish (greyish) word counts in the sentences, leaned to the most hawkish interpretation (red line) since 2023.

This was well received by the bond vigilantes, which appreciated the fact that the Fed does NOT seem to let inflation get out of hand, in turn pushing bond yields lower.

• US Initial Jobless Claims

• US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

• Global Flash PMIs (US / Eurozone / UK / Japan)

QuiCQ n’ dirty - This is the way!

• Everything in this document is for educational purposes only (FEPO)

• Nothing in this document should be considered investment advice

• Investing real money can be costly; don’t do stupid shit

• Leave politics at the door—markets don’t care.

• Past performance is hopefully no indication of future performance

• The views expressed in this document may differ from the views published by NPB Neue Privat Bank AG

Mene, Mene, Tekel, Upharsin" — "Numbered, numbered, weighed, divided. You have been weighed in the balances and found wanting."

— Book of Daniel, Chapter 5

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** Housekeeping **

This is likely to be the only Daily Quotedian of this week as your editor is heading into a well-deserved, long weekend. Back next week with weekly and daily editions.

Just a few random observations today, starting with yesterday’s US inflation report where the Core CPI number “beat” expectations:

Which is really a bit sarcastic, considering the Core CPI strips out food and energy costs, arguably the two items facing most upside pressure of the coming month from higher oil/gas and fertilizer prices …

But, however government tries to slice, dice and hide it, inflation is picking up again, except in average hourly earnings (which kind of reinforces the stagfkation argument again:

Later today we will get the Producer Price version of the inflation number, where a noticeable pick-up is expected:

Hence, let’s keep this chart in mind, which we have been following together for a few weeks now:

Please note that this chart above is not “chart crime”, even though it uses two different y-axis, because I am warning you of the potential “chart crime”. The importance on the chart above are a) lead and b) direction of the red line, not magnitude.

Onwards…

Nearly simultaneously with the release of the inflation numbers was Mr Ethan Hunt Kevin Warsh confirmed by the Senate as governor of the Fed. A Fed that is expected by one particular US president to lower interest rates, higher inflation or not… Mission Impossible?

Confirmation as next chairman of Mr Hunt Warsh will almost certainly follow later this week.

Some market observations from yesterday …

Semiconductor stocks FINALLY came under pressure … for a few hours:

The S&P 500, which admittedly dropped ‘only’ one percent top to bottom, unlike the SOX above, where the sell-off was in excess of five percent, made nearly the full round trip by market close and has gained additionally in after-hours futures market trading:

Asian stock markets are trading mostly higher this morning, with Japanese and Chinese Mainland stocks leading. One market worth mentioning however, is the Indian stock market, which while flat today has given back nearly five percent over the past few sessions:

The underperformance versus the wider Asian region is becoming very pronounced:

In bond markets, not a lot of good is happening, as yields are moving higher again (we highlighted our suspicion this would happen in our latest weekly Quotedian “To Infinity And Beyond”). The US 10-year yield is at its highest since last July,

and on the longer-term chart is approaching the upper end of its consolidation triangle:

UK 10-year Gilts are at their highest since 2008 on the back of a political starm(er) storm:

Fun fact: Over the past 10 years the UK had six different prime ministers (and possibly a new one in the making right now); Italy had five.

Finally, the copper trade we have been touting seems to be working well already. Here’s the chart of copper futures (1st):

Our preferred mean to invest, for those who cannot hold commodity futures in their portfolio, continues to be the Global X Copper Miner ETF:

Really like this chart. It shows the ratio of iShares TIPS ETF (i.e. inflation-linked bonds) to the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (i.e. nominal bonds).

The ratio is rising, having broken out of a clear multi-year triangle (red dashed) and now trading at the highest since 2022 (remember what happened back then to inflation?).

In my most simple interpretation, this means that investors are giving preference of inflation-protected bonds over those which are not.

The market has spoken.

Clearly all eyes on China over the next few days - this could turn out (in hindsight as usual) to be history being written.

May the Trend be with you!

• Everything in this document is for educational purposes only (FEPO)

• Nothing in this document should be considered investment advice

• Investing real money can be costly; don’t do stupid shit

• Leave politics at the door—markets don’t care.

• Past performance is hopefully no indication of future performance

• The views expressed in this document may differ from the views published by NPB Neue Privat Bank AG

“Alles neu macht der Mai”

— German folk song by Hermann Adam von Kamp (1818)

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Today will be a brief note only, with the main purpose of introducing a new (beta version) of our dashboard.

If you click one the PDF link below to open the Dashboard as, well, uh, PDF, you will note that the document has now expanded from one to three pages. On the additional pages you will find each day which stocks in the STOXX Europe 600 (SXXP - page 2) and the S&P 500 (SPX - page 3) are hitting a new 52-Week High or a new 52-Week Low. The design will improve over the coming days/weeks, but we think this information is for a professional investor like you very valuable. Feel free to leave your feedback in the comment section or sending a message:

Many major benchmark indices, led by the most popular US indices, themselves made not only a fresh 52-week high yesterday, but even a new all-time high.

Take the mighty S&P 500 for example:

Or the as-mighty Nasdaq 100:

Reason? As we outlined in our weekly Quotedian issue published yesterday (Stairs DOWN, Elevator UP), it seems that Greed (aka FOMO) clearly outweighs Fear.

But, you will say, the war, the inflation, the valuation, the Strait of Hormuz, the everything else that is so wrong about this … yes, you’re right, but you’re not. However, let’s leave this conversation for our next weekly Quotedian with the working title “Irrational Exuberance”. Make sure to be signed up to your weekly issue:

GET ME IN!!

Anyway, in the meantime, breadth in yesterday’s advance was solid, not only with nearly double as many companies ending the day up than down, but also with many more stocks reaching new 52-week highs than new 52-week lows (see how useful this new addition is!).

European stocks, which have started to lag recently,

probably due to the larger impact of energy costs, show, spinning it positively, still a greater upside/catch-up potential (SXXP below):

The Asian equity session this morning was solid, with a regional Bloomberg index up over two percent, hitting new all-time highs too:

Strongly contributing to those gains were South Korea’s KOSPI, where the memory-chip maker craze is getting out of hand,

and mainland China stocks:

To finish of in a speedround-like manner, it is noteworthy that all other asset classes are continuing to “play game”, i.e. support the ongoing equity rally by adhering to the correlation which have been true since the outset of the Iran conflict on March 1st in this session. Examples:

Dollar (DXY) weakens:

Bond yields (US 10-year yield) drop:

Gold is up:

Oil is down:

Need something more to worry about? See, chart below, no commentary needed:

Et, voila!

Later today we see the release of the ADP Employment report in the US as a prelude to Friday’s non-farm payroll report.

Earnings season continues in full swing, but other than that, relatively quiet agenda today (exception confirming the rule: Trump’s Social Truth handle).

That’s all for today, folks!

May the Trend be With You!

• Everything in this document is for educational purposes only (FEPO)

• Nothing in this document should be considered investment advice

• Investing real money can be costly; don’t do stupid shit

• Leave politics at the door—markets don’t care.

• Past performance is hopefully no indication of future performance

• The views expressed in this document may differ from the views published by NPB Neue Privat Bank AG

"There are only two tragedies in life: one is not getting what one wants, and the other is getting it."

— Oscar Wilde

20260422 Npb Db

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And today’s winner in the category “Be careful what you wish for” is…. drumroll…. longer drumroll….. TADA!!

But with the US President’s vocal-expression-organ and his finger-tips-stuck-on-social-media-apps this was just one announcement communication post “thing” of many yesterday he felt compelled to share with the world yesterday.

For our purposed (making money) probably the immediately most important one came shortly after the market close:

How did the market react? Well, as with anything that becomes a routine, such as TACO TUESDAYS, the marginal propensity of eating yet another TACO on yet another TUESDAY diminished noticeably.

Oil prices, for example, did not go down on the announced ‘permanent ceasefire’, but rather up, showing investors’ main worry being a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz (SoH):

Admittedly, prices have come down to where they were in the meantime, yet, the market knee-jerk reaction is still a tell sign.

Equity markets did jump, but only about half a percentage point right back to where they started worrying about the original deadline approaching:

Zooming out to the daily chart, the S&P 500 can definitely do with a pause after the second fastest move from oversold (RSI <30) to overbought (RSI >70) since 1950, as we had shown in Monday’s weekly Quotedian (“The Spice Must Flow”):

Breadth (advancers/decliners) was about 1:2 on the S&P yesterday, though it is noticable that 28 stocks hit a new 52-week high versus only 4 sitting at new 52-week lows.

For European markets, the 52-Week Hi/Lo ratio was nearly identical even though the STOXX 600 was down nearly a percent:

In Asia, it looks like the Nikkei 225 may be able to close at a new ATH in a few minutes:

Though the broader TOPIX index (1650 stocks) may be signalling a warning with a negative divergence to the Nikkei:

Little to report on the currency and commodity front other than oil which we already covered, so let’s move right on into the next section.

You know I like to say “there’s always a bull market somewhere”, hence with major global benchmarks hardly making any net progress over the past six months, it is satisfying to know you could have been invested in US Micro Cap stocks, which are up 85% over the past 12-months,

beating their mega/large-cap cousins by a wide margin:

Or, there has also been a bull market of note in Chinese ‘venture enterprises, with the ChiNext Index doubling over the past year:

That’s good and nice, you will say, but what is this knowledge worth if you cannot invest into these areas, right? Wrong!

Choose the iShares Microcap ETF (IWC) for US micro cap or the VanEck ChiNext ETF (CNXT) for the Chinese venture stocks.

De nada.

Quiet day ahead in terms of economic data, was nothing meaningful being reported out of the US.

CPI, PPI and RPI have already been reported in the UK a few minutes ago, generally ‘surprising’ to the upside.

Busy on the earnings front though, with ABB, Boeing, GE Vernova, Vertiv, AT&T, ServiceNow, IBM, Kinder Morgan, Lam Research, Tesla and Texas Instruments only a tight selection of a much wider area of names reporting today.

And to finish, we have another winner today, this time in the category “WTF”:

Oh, wait, same guy again …

May the Trend Be With You!!

• Everything in this document is for educational purposes only (FEPO)

• Nothing in this document should be considered investment advice

• Investing real money can be costly; don’t do stupid shit

• Leave politics at the door—markets don’t care.

• Past performance is hopefully no indication of future performance

• The views expressed in this document may differ from the views published by NPB Neue Privat Bank AG

“I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.”

— Sir Isaac Newton

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Stocks inched up yet another day, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both closing at new ATHs. In case of the S&P 500, it was the second close above 7,000:

Whilst the Nasdaq celebrated its 12th(!) CONSECUTIRVE up day:

So, what has provoked this acute outbreak of Bullmonia?

Well, it is kind of a mix of different viruses, with some of the below being the most dominant components:

• Retail buying (aka FOMO)

• CTA buying (aka “Quants”)

• Headline trading (aka Trump watchers, aka TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome))

• Gear (aka stupidity)

Prove on the latest is the easiest. Consider Allbirds (BIRD), a company providing sneakers, shoes, slip-ons, t-shirts, socks, underwear, bags, hats, and related products, which, out of the blue and announces it plans to ‘pivot its business to AI compute infrastructure’. That’s of course already stupid enough in itself, but was still outdone by the markets’ reaction:

Anyway, keeping this short on a Friday, Asian markets have stopped and slightly reversed the uptrend today, with an index measuring the fortunes of the wider region down about a percent.

This is an outcome I would expect for Western markets today too, as some profit taking should set in after that massive rally over the past two weeks and ahead of the weekend.

Bond yields (US 10-year Treasuries below) continue to trade within their downward slopping consolidation channel and absent any economic data out of the US we do not expect that to change today:

German yields have been more resilient to move lower after the spike and may be coiling up for a renewed break out, which could make sense in that the Eurozone is more affected by the inflationary impact from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz:

In that context, also pay close attention to our COTD below.

Little to report from currency OR commodity markets, other than maybe that copper futures have been moving higher lately, speaking of a strong economy which could exhibit additional upside pressure on stocks and downside pressure on bonds:

Interesting chart here from the fine folks at Barclays Research, showing the correlation of different asset classes and their subindices to the price in oil since the start of the Iran war:

Unsurprisingly, international equity market exhibit the strongest (negative) correlation to oil.

With nothing of importance on the economic and only little (Ericsson, State Street, Truist Financials) on the earnings calendar it is time to clean out the inbox, catch-up on admin, square out some positions and head off into the weekend!

May the Trend be With You!

André

• Everything in this document is for educational purposes only (FEPO)

• Nothing in this document should be considered investment advice

• Investing real money can be costly; don’t do stupid shit

• Leave politics at the door—markets don’t care.

• Past performance is hopefully no indication of future performance

• The views expressed in this document may differ from the views published by NPB Neue Privat Bank AG

“In preparing for battle I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.”

— Dwight D. Eisenhower

20260414 Npb Db

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So, there we are, with the (US) equity market having unwound ALL of its Iran War induced losses - and, since yesterday, and then some! Including yesterday’s two percent plus jump, the S&P 500 is now 1.5% higher than when the war broke out in the first March days:

True, not all international markets enjoy the same recovery (a selection below),

but overall it is fair to say that the market is expecting the ceasefire to turn into a peace treaty and also does not consider the still largely closed Strait of Hormuz (SoH)

to be a longer-term threat.

Well, good luck with that. As we highlight in our latest quarterly NPB CIO Outlook (click here) we are in favour of a short- to medium-term rally, but the longer term consequences of higher oil, fertilizer, helium, plastic, etc. prices should not be underrated… See the Chart-of-the-Day for more on this.

But back to yesterday’s rally, which was healthy not only in absolute progress, but also under the hood. Whilst the advancers-to-decliners ratio on the S&P 500 was ‘only’ 3:2, twenty-four stocks hit a new 52-week high, whilst only two a new 52-week low:

An even better stat on the same hit us out of Europe (SXXP):

Back to US stocks, where small cap stock have been on a 12%-plus tear since March 30, closing less than half a percentage point from a new all-time high (ATH):

Outside equity markets, bond yields are signalling some return to normality (whatever that means in financial markets, especially nowadays). Here’s the US 10-year Treasury yield, which could continue to move lower as equities continue to rally:

4.40% is now the big risk point.

German yields, as proxy for the Eurozone, have also calmed a tad, though remain above 3% for now:

The USD continues to be one of my favourite, structural shorts. Here’s the Dollar Index (DXY):

And don’t look now, but Bitcoin may be up to something naughty:

In the section above I noted that investors should enjoy a short- to medium-term market rally, but should not turn a blind eye on the perils from longer-term impact of the SoH closure.

Point-in-case: Why do you think stocks of food makers have been under substantial pressure, hitting new 52-weeks lows early this week, and barely recovering with the rest of the market?

Yes, exactly. Higher input costs ahead! Watch this space….

Later today:

• US eco data: MBA Mortgage Applications, Empire Manufacturing, Export/Import prices and the glossy magazine that is the Fed’s Beige book

• Earnings: ASML, Helvetia Baloise, M&T Bank Corp, PNC, BofA, Morgan Stanley

May the Trend be with You!

• Everything in this document is for educational purposes only (FEPO)

• Nothing in this document should be considered investment advice

• Investing real money can be costly; don’t do stupid shit

• Leave politics at the door—markets don’t care.

• Past performance is hopefully no indication of future performance

• The views expressed in this document may differ from the views published by NPB Neue Privat Bank AG

“The stock market is the only place where things go on sale and everyone runs out of the store screaming.”

— unknown

20260410 Npb Db

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What’s up? What’s not up! Another week where we literally get calls for extinctions of an entire civilisation, followed by some heavy TACO eating…

Too much to cover it all in a supposedly short, daily edition, but let’s have a look at some key charts and ideas.

In equity markets, the S&P 500 has bottomed for the medium-term on Monday a week ago (30.3.) and with the price now firmly back above the 200-day AND the 50-day moving average, chances for reaching a new ATH in the near future have increased:

Giving additional confidence that the major indices could be hitting new all-time highs (ATH) soon, is that more cyclical measures, such as the DJ Transport index,

or the Philadelphia Semiconductor index,

have already done so!

However, with earnings season starting next week,

it will be important to see whether CFOs will downgrade their guidance. Analysts have not yet done so (next 12 month earnings estimates, red line),

which could lead to major disappointment.

Mildly surprising, European stocks (SXXP) bottomed out a week earlier (23.3.) than their US peers:

And, noteworthy, did this index never close below its 200-day moving average.

Bond yields (below the US 10-year Treasury version) topped out simultaneously out with the bottom in stocks, which is no surprise, as the entire market has been trading the headlines over the past few weeks as one enormous macro trade:

It follows then, that if stocks bottomed and bond yields topped, the US Dollar now should also have topped out,

and so should have the oil price (Brent):

BINGO on both accounts!

Rapidly back to the greenback though, where the lack of true strength during this major geopolitical crisis confirms our view that more secular weakness lies ahead. We are watching that red dashed line on the Dollar Index (DXY) chart very closely:

Gold (and silver) had been trading with a high positive correlation (R2 0.50 as compared to 5-year average R2 0.02) to stocks during all this Middle East mess, proving it was a liquidity provider after the massive rally over the past few years. We still see gold higher over the next few weeks:

A special mention goes to that “touch ‘n go” on the 200-day moving average!

Later today we will see the release of inflation (CPI) data in the US. Regular readers already know how much I detest this lagging and manipulated number, but still, it will be one that the market looks at for impact of this recent Strait of Hormuz (SoH) crisis. Well, here is what I think they can await over the coming months:

We have more charts with similar path-predictions in our upcoming Q2 outlook.

CPI will be the focus, but there are also Sentiment, Durable Goods orders and some Federal Budget numbers being reported later this (European) afternoon.

Other than that, fade the headlines and stay safe!

Have a great weekend everyone and, of course, May the Trend be with You!

• Everything in this document is for educational purposes only (FEPO)

• Nothing in this document should be considered investment advice

• Investing real money can be costly; don’t do stupid shit

• Leave politics at the door—markets don’t care.

• Past performance is hopefully no indication of future performance

• The views expressed in this document may differ from the views published by NPB Neue Privat Bank AG

“The market is a pendulum that forever swings between unsustainable optimism and unjustified pessimism.”

— Benjamin Graham

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And just when you thought that the market is finally on a Zig higher, US President Trump comes with yet another curve ball, and Zag lower it is again.

According to Trump’s address to the nation last night:

• War is "nearing completion"

• Expect "Extremely hard" strikes for 2–3 more weeks

• Regime change claimed but disclaimed — "we never said regime change, but regime change has occurred"

That second bullet point up there sounds a lot like “Boots on the Ground” to come over the next days. But maybe it’s just me…

Separately, in an interview with the Telegraph, he also leashed out against Nato.

The kangaroo market continues.

Hence, we remind ourselves for a third time this week that “never anything good happens below” the 200-day moving average and many major markets continues to trade below that hallmark or are at the cusp of doing so.

With Trump’s address to the nation having taken place after market close, there is little to observe from market internal indicators such as breadth, but of course are (equity) futures markets flashing deep red this morning and Asian markets, with an anyway higher sensitivity to energy price, also in full sell-off mood and mode:

In a nutshell, this morning’s ZAG is stocks lower,

bond yields higher,

oil higher,

US Dollar higher,

and Gold and Silver lower:

That’s the simple to implement but hard to foretell cross-asset macro trade going on at the moment …

Most of you are focused on the headline-grabbing equity markets, and therefore most of you are currently being boxed around by this kangaroo market…

But fret not, you are not alone.

Interest rate investors have gone from incorporating Fed rate cuts, to hike to now unchanged in just three weeks!

ZIG-ZAG … ZOG

Today is the last trading day off the week for nearly all global markets - and it promises to be fun!

Later today we’ll have US Initial and Continuing Claims, followed by tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payroll number.

Not one Easter shall go by without me putting up this silly, stone-age old joke:

Having that said, May the Trend be with You!

• Everything in this document is for educational purposes only (FEPO)

• Nothing in this document should be considered investment advice

• Investing real money can be costly; don’t do stupid shit

• Leave politics at the door—markets don’t care.

• Past performance is hopefully no indication of future performance

• The views expressed in this document may differ from the views published by NPB Neue Privat Bank AG

"There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true."

— Søren Kierkegaard

20260401 Npb Db

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Interesting times … as it has been for the past 15 months or so …

There we wrote on Monday in the weekly edition of the Quotedian how much (equity) markets were on the brink of breaking down and negative global growth taste in our mouths we had not had for … well, about a year since Liberation Day.

Moving on 48 hours, and the charts look pretty constructive again after a massive rally on Tuesday. And this under a scenario that very much reminds me, as I have been discussing with colleagues, of the Eagles classic “Hotel California” song (click here), as Trump is willed to clear victory on Iran, even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed…

Last thing I remember
I was running for the door
I had to find the passage back
To the place I was before
"Relax, " said the night man
"We are programmed to receive
You can check out any time you like
But you can never leave"

Mind you, despite a nearly 3% rally it has been a dreadful month, not only for the S&P 500,

where it had been the worst month since, well, last March, but also for global key benchmark indices in general:

On the chart, and as forementioned, the yesterday’s rally has helped improve the ‘visual aspect’ of the overall picture, however, it must be noted that we still trade below the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 (not shown):

And immediately following having said that, the S&P 500 equal-weight index managed to close above the key landmark (the 200-day MA that is), after just two closes below it, which has very bullish interpretation potential:

It is also a hint to how broad yesterday’s rally was, with an advance-decline ratio of larger than 5:1

There was really only one sector (with the allowance of utilities) printing proper red yesterday, which was, unsurprisingly so, the energy sector:

European stocks, maybe to the surprise of most of us, actually have one of the most favourable chart pictures, with the STOXX 600 never having closed below its 200-day MA:

Asian markets are, not surprisingly, strongly higher this early Wednesday morning too, lead by a crazy five percent move higher in Japan’s Nikkei 225 index,

and rounded off by an Utopian 9% advance on Korea’s KOSPI:

Turning to bond markets, yields have come down, maybe not a long way, but decently from the intraday highs only last Thursday. Here’s the 10-Year US Treasury yield chart:

And here its German equivalent as a proxy for European yield markets (which had hit their cycle highs on Friday rather than Thursday):

So, as it seems to be not only April Fools’ Day, but also Uno Reverse Card Day,

it follows then that if stocks are higher and bond yields lower, the USD should also be weaker:

BINGO!

It follows then that the Dollar Index (DXY) has been rejected once again at the upper end of its range:

Also, BINGO.

Last but not least, in the commodity space, crude oil (Brent) futures have also come down over the past session,

but given the uncertainty surrounding the opening or not of the Strait of Hormuz remain above the USD100 mark for now. A drop below would be a tell sign of an improving Strait situation.

Gold (red), as mentioned in Monday’s Quotedian (click here), are profiting from now falling real rates (grey, inverted):

And already mentioned two weeks ago (click here), we expect this rally to have legs:

A potential ABC pattern may have terminated, which should take the price of gold first to 4,800 and then 4,920. The longer term picture would suggest a new ATH over the coming months. All bets off below 4,350.

Were oil traders right all that time? Is the conflict (and the closure of the Strait) really only “transitory”.

As shown in the spread between first month and the twelve month futures prices of Brent, traders bet up the price of short-term oil, but were/are confident that 12-months out oil will be much cheaper:

This is known as that famous Backwardation (with Contango being the contrary, where futures prices are higher the further out you go).

If this is conceptually difficult to grasp, here’s a nice chart overlaying those two contracts (grey 1-month, red 12-month), showing the confidence expressed by traders for this to be transitory, with the 12-month price staying way behind the 1-month price:

Couple of “things” out today, with the ADP employment report ahead of Friday's non-farm payroll figures and the ISM readings in the US probably the most important from an economic data point of view.

But, hand on heart, the only item that probably really matters on today’s agenda is Trump addressing the Nation on Iran at 21:00 ET. Unfortunately, this will be 3 a.m. for us in Europe here, but hey, if we stay up for the Super Bowl Final and the Oscars …

With all this said, always remember:

"April 1. This is the day upon which we are reminded of what we are on the other 364."

— Mark Twain

May the Trend be with You (and the jokes light on you).

André

• Everything in this document is for educational purposes only (FEPO)

• Nothing in this document should be considered investment advice

• Investing real money can be costly; don’t do stupid shit

• Leave politics at the door—markets don’t care.

• Past performance is hopefully no indication of future performance

• The views expressed in this document may differ from the views published by NPB Neue Privat Bank AG

"Nothing good happens below the 200-day moving average"

— Paul Tudor Jones

20260327 Npb Db

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As they say, the first victim of a war is the the truth, and this is of course even more true if modern-day propaganda is magnified by the reach of social media. In this context, it continues to be extremely difficult to separate the noise from signal, let alone actually interpreting the signals themselves …

Hence, it seems yesterday investors’ mantra started changing from FOMO to “When in doubt, sell!”, as risk-off behaviour is becoming increasingly visible.

A quick run-down here, starting with what markets (and apparently Trump, probably under Bessent’s instructions advice) most look at currently, which is the US 10-year Treasury yield:

I have not yet had the time to do the exact work, but it must be a certain ROC (Rate of Change) in the 10-year yield over a short-time frame that has the White House getting nervous and going full TACO. Like yesterday, wen TACO-in-Chief Trump extended the negotiations deadline by another 10 days.

So far, it hasn’t helped a lot, as we can see on the chart above, with the last candle (today) continuing to rise.

Equity markets also took only very short comfort from the expansion of the deadline yesterday:

Also, on the daily chart, the S&P (and other indices) has spent enough time now below the 200-day MA to confirm that market dynamic has changed:

I invite you to scroll back up and read that quote of the day again…

European stocks may be joining in on that party as soon as today:

We expressed our concerns over the Indian equity market yesterday (which was closed on Thursday), as the frequency of news regarding panic fuel buying at the pumps has been increasing. This morning we got confirmation that those concerns are justified, with the BSE500 down 1.6%:

The Dollar is rallying again this morning, but as mentioned yesterday, putting it in perspective, we would have expected for the Greenback to be MUCH stronger at this stage:

And this is probably the best sign of the structural, secular weakness behind the USD.

We also need to mention the European bond market, below proxied via German Bund Futures, which is facing an epic sell-off as yields are heading towards 3.10% this morning:

Finally, oil is NOT indicating that a permanent ceasefire is laying just ahead of us:

Three-for-one offer today … in COTDs that is.

The first one is in reference to me insisting on starting today’s letter with the bond market instead of the stock market, where for sure, according to your view at least, all the action is happening. Yes, but no. The stock market is seeing action, but it is the tail waged by the bond dog. Consider the chart below - the grey line is the steepness of the yield curve (10y-2y) which is deflating like a beach ball at the end of the summer. The red line is the stock market, happily following the shapc of the YC lower:

The other two charts are two attempts to quantify Trump’s TACO moments. The first is by Vanda:

And the second by BCA:

Nothing specific to watch today, other than all the market price movements across the asset classes for hints what may be coming.

Be safe out there and May the Trend be with You!

André

• Everything in this document is for educational purposes only (FEPO)

• Nothing in this document should be considered investment advice

• Investing real money can be costly; don’t do stupid shit

• Leave politics at the door—markets don’t care.

• Past performance is hopefully no indication of future performance

• The views expressed in this document may differ from the views published by NPB Neue Privat Bank AG