QuiCQ 03/01/2025
"Emergency" Edition
The law of unintended consequences is the only real law of history.
— Niall Ferguson
Enjoying The QuiCQ but not yet signed up for The Quotedian? What are you waiting for?!!
HNY everyone!
Well, I had not planned to publish the first QuiCQ until later next week, even though the first Quotedian was already published two days ago (click here).
However, the situation in Venezuela, where US troops have attacked military installations and “secuestred” President Maduro and his wife.
I have no answers to anything right now, but some interesting questions are circling my head at this moment. I will share those below and invite you to leave your thoughts and comments in the comments section.
Will the US leave a power vacuum, or is there a plan?
Will Venezuela enter a civil war or accept “normalised” elections?
What will happen to Cuba? Next domino stone to fall? The main question is whether Venezuela's cheap oil will continue to flow to the island nation. If not, …
What will happen to the oil price? I have no idea - the only thing I think to understand is that oil extraction is difficult in Venezuela (offshore) and infrastructure is mediocre or even medieval.
Maybe that is why shares of US oil (offshore drilling) companies have been bid over the past weeks and months? More upside to come?
Can anyone explain to me why Oil Service companies (OIH) were up 4% on the last trading day of the year (31.12.)?
What will happen to equity markets? This will depend largely on how investors consider the following question:
Does China now believe they have a green light regarding Taiwan????
For now, Bitcoin, a measure of risk-on/risk-off and the only asset trading 24/7 is relatively calm, so let’s take this as good news for Monday:
That’s all for now - The next Quotedian should be out tomorrow, latest Monday morning and will focus on the year ahead (mainly through further questions).
Enjoy your weekend!!
André
