QuiCQ 11/04/2024
Toothpaste
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"Inflation is like toothpaste. Once it's out, you can hardly get it back in again. So, the best thing is not to squeeze too hard on the tube."
-- Karl Otto Pöhl
Interesting chart today from the always fascinating Jim Bianco at Biancoresearch.com. After yesterday's "surprise" hotter-than-expected inflation data in the US (CPI), the chart illustrates that inflation at the end of September would still be 2.67% if the month-over-month (MoM) releases equal pre-pandemic QE-era inflation (orange line). It would be at 3.86% should MoM inflation continue at its post-Covid average (red). And finally, even if inflation should drop to 0% between May and September, inflation would still be reported at 1.90% (green). In other words, only 0% inflation over the next half year or so would get inflation below the Fed target.
