QuiCQ 11/04/2025
Not here, over there!
"It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so."
— Mark Twain
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Today will be a short note only on an already very busy Friday …
Yet, we still have to take the time for this short preamble: Finally the US inflation number (CPI) yesterday got the attention it deserves - NONE. Be it for too much going on or for the fact that Trumps Tariff Tantrum (TTT™) weren’t reflected in the March numbers, the fact is that it is a hopelessly lagging number and should never have gotten a lot of screentime anyway. But I am sure market gurus and market pundits will soon be back to squeezing out information of each decimal point change.
Onwards…
US equities gave back some of their historic one-session gains from Wednesday,
but if you are looking at the stock market you are looking to wrong way anyway …
You have to be looking at this:
Or this:
Or even this:
Whilst over the past few minutes trends have slightly reversed on all three charts above, the combination of US Dollar down, US Bond prices down and Gold up, is a sign that something is seriously out of whack. All else being equal, it should translate also into a weaker stock market - at best one that can hold above Wednesday’s lows.
As mentioned, have to keep it short today. Make sure to tune in on Sunday, latest Monday on our weekly publication, The Quotedian:
Treat Friday with the respect it deserves and then go on and have a great weekend!
In the last Quotedian, titled “exodUS” (click here), we highlighted the possibility that enough damage had been done by the US administration to increase the distrust of international investment community for it to start reducing the number one export item of the US. Financial assets.
As so often in recent history, emerging new trends manifest themselves at the speed of light in the marketplace, and the tumbling US Dollar is just one possible ‘proves’ to our theory above (another one is the stubbornly high US bond yield).
Should the support zone on the US Dollar Index (DXY) between 100.50 and 100.00 give … well, further (downside) acceleration …
