QuiCQ 17/04/2025
New Sheriffs in Town
"Gold is money. Everything else is credit."
– J.P. Morgan
Enjoying The QuiCQ but not yet signed up for The Quotedian? What are you waiting for?!!
Yesterday was a risk-off session for US stocks, whilst European equities managed to close flattish, not least because selling on Wall Street started after our closing bell here had rung:
An accelerator to the selling pressure was an on-balance hawkish speech by Fed Chair Powell at the Economic Club of Chicago. His words
“Our obligation is to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored and to make certain that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem”
were interpreted as a focus on inflation and hence was perceived as a lowering of the Fed put.
All but one (Energy +0.8%) closed lower on the day, led by consumer and technology stocks. Especially chip stocks were under pressure, not least due to a double-whammy of bad news coming from two major players, Nvidia and ASML. The Philadelphia Semiconductor index (SOX -4.1%) saw its timid rally since the April 7th low paused, if not halted:
Nothing much of interest to report back from the rates front, except maybe that a USD13 billion 20-year Treasury auction was a non-event, which means, demand for US treasuries continues to be there.
Maybe it is therefore that the US Dollar has found some strength versus other G10 currencies over the past few hours?
Though, throwing the above on a chart (DXY), we note that this Dollar upside is just a drop on a hot stove:
What I forgot the mention in yesterday’s QuiCQ note was of course that Gold had hit a new all-time high (ATH). However, that omittance is of low impact, as the shiny yellow metal hit yet another ATH earlier today:
Finally, don’t look now - but there’s actually an ECB policy rate meeting being held later today! Am I the only one having been looking the other direction? Probably.
In any case, a quarter of a percentage point cut is expected by economists and futures trades:
For obvious reasons, there will be no QuiCQ until next week (Tuesday probably) and I am not quite sure yet if there will be an Easter Quotedian. We’ll have to decide on the go ;-)
The Mag Lag 7 have been largely put out of combat. As in the movie, only few (2) survive …
But there are new sheriffs in town … the Golden Guns (aka GDX):
