QuiCQ 20/11/2025
Saved by the Bell (aka Nvidia)
“There’s been a lot of talk about an AI bubble. From our vantage point, we see something very different.”
— Jensen Huang, CEO Nvidia during the 19/11/2025 earnings call
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Only a quick, meeting-tempered note this morning. Plus, there will probably be no QuiCQ out tomorrow Friday. I know, life’s unfair!
Obviously, all eyes for on NVDA last night after the market and once more it was Deja Vu all over again (what a wonderfully wrongly constructed phrase), as the company’s earnings completely shot out the light.
The earnings number and upward guidance was enough make the company’s share price shoot up five percent after hours,
and also enough to lift the entire market (Nasdaq 100 in this case) by nearly two percent:
The other ‘big’ news of the day was the release of the FOMC minutes of the October meeting, where the Fed had produced a hawkish 25 bp cut. Indeed, did the minutes confirm the Fed divide over the future path of the policy rate.
As a result the odds implied by futures market for a December rate cut have now dwindled further from Monday’s 40% to less than 30%:
Quite “au contraire” however, have chances implied by the market for a BoE (Bank of England) rate cut increased from 75% at the beginning of the week,
to now being nearly a foregone conclusion at 93%:
This after inflation numbers came in less hot than the previous month.
As I mentioned in yesterday’s note, the US government is playing catch-up with producing economic data after the record-long shutdown and a heap of data will reported today and tomorrow. This is today’s agenda:
Not of least interest is of course the NFP number, which is September one and the last one to be reported before the next FOMC meeting. October will be skipped, probably due to a lack of data collection, and the November number is reported after the December FOMC.
As mentioned, short letter today, and if you do not hear from me tomorrow …
… ENJOY YOUR WEEKEND!!
Just how much Nvidia dominates its rivals is shown in the chart below. Nvidia’s NET INCOME (grey bars) by far exceed its principal rivals Intel (blue line) and AMD (red line) SALES:
No further commentary necessary and no need to stay tuned necessary either.
