QuiCQ 21/02/2025
Friday Quickie
"Amateurs sit and wait for inspiration, the rest of us just get up and go to work."
— Stephen King
Enjoying The QuiCQ but not yet signed up for The Quotedian? What are you waiting for?!!
It’s Friday after another week that felt at least like a month (as most weeks since beginning of this year) and I am feeling pretty uninspired … hence, let’s get up, get to work and keep it sweet and short today!
US stocks (S&P 500) traded lower yesterday, making the breakout from Thursday looking like a false one … for now:
Is it a bull trap as the chart ask? I doubt it, but the next few hours should show. Or not. The following chart, showing February’s seasonality pattern (grey line) over the past 30 years, suggest we may have to wait for March until the break is confirmed:
Let’s follow-up in Sunday’s/Monday’s Quotedian:
Winners and loser in the index were quite precisely balanced yesterday, whilst only four out of eleven sectors were able to print green at market close. On the other hand, new 52-week highs (16) still dominated the number of new 52-week lows (3).
Other session highlights included two very good earning reports from Alibaba (BABA) and Walmart (WMT), with very different outcomes for their stock prices:
Asian markets are higher this morning, lead by a 3%-plus leap by Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index:
Now THAT looks like a clear break!
European and US index futures point to a flattish start to our session here.
Global bond yields are trading a tad lower this early Friday, with nothing specific to mention, other than maybe this headline:
This is what that inflation number looks like on a long-term chart:
And now, bookmark the US 10-year Treasury versus the 10-year JGB yield chart (grey) and add a USD/JPY line (red) to it for the next few months to years:
Time to hit the send button, but not without mentioned that the Investment Committee at NPB has decided to lift the Gold exposure from Neutral (5%) to a tactical simple overweight (7.5%), to be implimented over the coming days. A note will follow soon, drop me a line (ahuwiler@npb-bank.ch) should you wish to receive a copy.
Have a great weekend!
André
Trump’s official map of the USA as per midday yesterday:
