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"The important question is not whether conditions are good or bad, but whether they are changing for better or worse."
-- Arthur Zeikel
** Housekeeping: Next QuiCQ not until at least 02/05/2024 due to travels **
Earlier this week we released our Quarterly CIO Office outlook, complete with Tactical Asset Allocation recommendations and the accompanying chart book. You can find it all by clicking here.
One new addition to the chart pack is the economic cycle clock (see below), which tries to identify where we are, well, in the economic cycle. Exact cycle positioning is never an easy task, though our best guess is that we are in an inflationary boom period. However, one thing we know is where we NOT are, and that is a deflationary bust. Hence, continue to underweight bonds, especially in terms of duration risk, as we recommend in our TAA.
