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"The idea that the future is unpredictable is undermined everyday by the ease with which the past is explained."
-- Daniel Kahneman
At the beginning of this year, the consensus forecast was for the Fed to cut up to seven times. Fast-forward six months, and that expectation has fallen to less than two cuts as shown by the grey line below, which shows an estimated year-end level for the upper bound of the fed fund rate of 5.05 (rhs). And this as the Citi Economic Surprise Index (red - lhs) is hitting new lows, indicating that the economy is weaker-than-expected. Conundrum ahoy?