QuiCQ 30/04/2025
100 done, 1360 to go
"Do not go where the path may lead, go instead where there is no path and leave a trail."
— Ralph Waldo Emerson:
Enjoying The QuiCQ but not yet signed up for The Quotedian? What are you waiting for?!!
Housekeeping! I will be travelling the rest of the week and first half of next week. Hence, the next QuiCQ is likely not to be published until Thursday 8th, May. If time allows, I will fit in a short Quotedian on Sunday.
The US stock market (S&P 500) ended up half a percentage point yesterday, which was quite to the collective relief of investors, as the worst was feared given that Jim Cramer from Mad Money was ringing the opening bell:
Also, given that consumer confidence (Conference Board) has plummeted in the first 100-days back to the levels of the COVID lows,
it’s half a miracle that the US stock market keeps silently creeping up unwinding a lot of the losses since Obliteration Day (less than 1% to go for the S&P):
Anyway, back to yesterday’s session, which saw the S&P 500 climbing for a sixth consecutive day on the back of easing tariff conditions (auto industry) and an imminent first trade deal - rumour has that it is with India. Interestingly enough, this India trade deal rumour comes up as Pakistan’s Information Minister claimed over the past few hours, “credible evidence that India is planning military aggression in Pakistan within 24-36 hours, …”. Watch this space.
Once again, breadth was strong in yesterday’s rally, as it has been since the Zweig Breadth Thrust signal we wrote about in Monday’s Quotedian (click here), with nearly three stocks up for every stock down yesterday,
and all but one sector (Energy) higher on the day:
Other signs of stabilization come out of the corners of a) the fixed income markets, where US 10-year bonds have rallied for a fourth consecutive session and the yield on the same bond now substantially below the April 11th panic high of 4.59%
as also b) the currency markets, where the US Dollar has been able to stabilize against other major currencies over the past week or so:
This is what the Dollar Index (DXY) chart looks like:
Another signal for the biggest part of the tariff panic to be over is of course the price of Gold, which now seems to have settled in around the $3,300 level:
As we updated last week, we have reduced our blow-off top tactical overweight in place since February again, but keep a constructive long-term stance. Still, the next move should be lower and take gold into the vicinity of $3,100.
Last but not least, oil continues to flag an upcoming recession:
Ok, that’s all for now folks! As written at the outset of today’s letter, we will be back with the QuiCQ on Thursday next week! Take care out there.
