QuiCQ Edition (25/02/2026)
Wind of Change
“The secret of change is to focus all of your energy, not on fighting the old, but on building the new.”
— Socrates
Yesterday’s equity session found a positive twist, especially in the early stages of the US trading session, after which initial enthusiasm faded:
The story remains, as we already highlighted in yesterday’s Quotedian (click here), that the index remains range stuck in a tight 200-points (± 3%) range:
The 50-day trading range has fallen to its narrowest since 2017 according to this chart:
Yet, volatility (VIX) remains relatively elevated:
This elevated volatility can probably be explained via dispersion (i.e. performance difference between the different index members), which remains high:
Breadth, as measured by the cumulative advance-decline ratio on this occasion (lower clip, red line) continues to support a break-out on the upper end of this trading range eventually:
Nevertheless, has the NPB Investment Committee for now decided to leave recently raised cash on the sidelines until a clear break is confirmed. See our note here:
Trump’s nearly two-hours “State of the Union” show speech brought nothing market relevant; maybe only reading between the lines the absence of speaking meaningfully about Iran could be a hint …
In Asia, the Nikkei continues to stampede higher:
Are you invested enough? Are you invested?!
Little movement in rates and currency markets, so we’ll skip this today.
Remains to be mentioned that Silver broker, against my expectations, early out of its consolidation triangle and if it is able to close above the dotted line (ca. USD90.50) the technical picture will be very constructive again:
Today’s chart-of-the-day is not really a chart, but nevertheless more the “fun” then ever. It’s Anthropic’s (the makers of Claude.ai) list of targets, split into missions completed (left, red) and futures objectives (right,blue).
Anthropic is the true Hit Man!
And speaking of AI, of course today is the big day of every quarter where NVIDIA is to report their earnings (after-market)
In Germany, we get GfK Consumer Confidence and GDP revision (yes, yet another one)
In the US, just MBA Mortgage Applications as an economic number
Everything in this document is for educational purposes only (FEPO)
Nothing in this document should be considered investment advice
Investing real money can be costly; don’t do stupid shit
Leave politics at the door—markets don’t care.
Past performance is hopefully no indication of future performance
The views expressed in this document may differ from the views published by NPB Neue Privat Bank AG