The Q - Daily Edition - 01/07/2026
Signs of Life
“Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face”
— Mike Tyson
Today’s super-quick QuiCQ is not about ICYMI, but rather ICYMM (In Case You Missed Me). As Mike Tyson famously said in today’s Quote-of-the-Day, we all have different ideas on how our day/week/year/life will go. This is also true for this timid editor of your favourite newsletter, and instead of releasing multiple letters this week, I have been confined to a room with a view for the past few (and next few) days:
But, just to let you know I am still here, here a short QuiCQ, with nothing but a few charts I found interesting enough to share. So, no specific market observations today, just “chicken soup for the chartist’s soul”.
For example, we were all wondering why Chinese Tech (KWEB - KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF) is lagging so much the Global Tech stocks (IXN - iShares Global Tech ETF):
Well, maybe we were looking at the wrong (KWEB) instead of the correct (KSTR - KraneShares SSE Star 50 Market ETF) one:
Another amazing chart is the one of Cybersecurity stocks (CIBR) in comparison to Software stocks (IGV - grey line) and the tech sector as a whole (XLK - red line):
Versus other software stocks, cybersecurity shares are at a decade relative high, whilst at the same time the are close a decade-low versus the general tech sector.
On another note, the USD/JPY hit its highest level since …. drumroll …1986!!
Are we in for another August 2024 carry-trade scare this summer?
And to finalize this brief letter, here’s a chart I showed before. It shows that we may be entering the eye of the storm before the mid-term volatility starts in August:
The above seasonal graph is further underlined by the following data-mining statistic: The S&P 500 has made 20+ new highs in the first six months of the year. On previous, similar occasions, the SPX has never peaked before August, and the full year has been positive 100% of the time.”
And to take full advantage of that possible up month, we should probably go full beta momentum tech, where seasonality seems strongest, at least during the first half of the month:
What to watch today? Well, the possible release of the month-end edition of The Quotedian of course! Sign up below if you have not yet done so:
Be safe,
André
Everything in this document is for educational purposes only (FEPO)
Nothing in this document should be considered investment advice
Investing real money can be costly; don’t do stupid shit
Leave politics at the door—markets don’t care.
Past performance is hopefully no indication of future performance
The views expressed in this document may differ from the views published by NPB Neue Privat Bank AG