„Wenn keine Narren auf der Welt wären, was wär’ die Welt?“
(“If there were no fools in the world, what would the world be like?”)
— Jakob Michael Reinhold Lenz
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Today, eleventh of November (aka 11.11.) at 11 hours and 11 minutes (aka 11:11), the Fasching/Carnival/Fastnacht ‘season’ begins in German-speaking Europe, which inspired today’s quote of the day, which is, of course, also 100% applicable to what has been surfacing recently regarding the founder and CEO of Nvidia.
But with 2026 being the year of “Never a Dull Moment”, the quote could easily become the quote of the year… If there were no fools in the world, what would the world be like? Indeed!
Onwards…
Yesterday, the S&P 500 ended down a mild 0.38%, or 29 index points, with quite precisely as many issues up (247) as down (250) on the day:
Wait for it, here it comes …
Out of those 29 negative index points, NVDA’s 5.47% made up 28.
Sorry, if you are below 18-years of age look away and if you’re of sensitive nature look away too:
In other words, Jensen Huang screwed the SPY!
Quickly onwards!
The Nasdaq closed down a bit more than half a per cent, but that was a great improvement from the levels seen at the lows and left many traders to forget that 2% intraday drawdown:
On the daily chart, this same index was not quite able to take reconquer the 200-day moving average:
However, Nasdaq futures this early morning have achieved just that:
In other words, if the cash index can close at current levels of futures right now or better, then the technical picture has improved massively, as we can file the move of last week as a bear trap (aka an “Oops”).
One index I wanted to quickly highlight is Germany’s DAX. Were you aware, and/or how many people have you heard talk about the fact that the DAX hit a new all-time high last Friday, even if only intraday?
Asian equity markets are mostly friendly this morning, led by the usual high-volatility suspects, Tawain and South Korea.
The other fool story from this week is of course about the Fed. I had already highlighted in the weekly Quotedian (“Grand Theft Auto”), how the market (and the Fed) is ignoring a strong NFP number (more than double expectations), a higher-than-expected Average Hourly Earnings reading and a lower-than-expected unemployment reading.
The bond market had not reacted to that, however, it did to yesterday’s month-on-month CPI release (no y-o-y numbers delivered as the government was shut down last year …), which came in above-expectations. US 2-year Treasury yields saw there most violent upmove since Liberations day now nearly two years ago:
And this is what it looks like on the daily chart:
Fed hike expectations derived from Futures markets finally also shot higher, all but guaranteeing a hike on December 9th:
Interestingly enough, Fed Governor Waller, speaking a few hours BEFORE the CPI release, spoke a December hike already and even advocated for a possible 50 basis point move.
The only question is: Was he sent or a ‘dissident’, falling into Warsh’s back?
But actually, the answer does not matter.
One thing we may not forget, that Warsh is a hawk and always has been. And now, he has much less pressure to live up to Uncle Donald’s (aka OLD = Orange Lame Duck) expectations … just saying.
And finally, somebody has entered a rush to find the even greater fool seems to be Anthropic, which now wants to IPO possibly as soon as next week.
Why the rush? Well, let’s put one and one together:
Already wobbly tech market meets hawkish Fed = Investors’ risk appetite OFF!
That’s all for today - May the Trend be with You!
André
According to Marko Papic at BCA Research:
“The 2020s are the first decade since... Maybe the Middle Ages (?!?!?)... that not a single corporate entity from the European continent was in the top-10 largest global corporations.”
The Important One:
Everything in this document is for educational purposes only (FEPO)
Nothing in this document should be considered investment advice
Investing real money can be costly; don’t do stupid shit
Leave politics at the door—markets don’t care.
Past performance is hopefully no indication of future performance
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