The Q - Daily Edition - 17/07/2026
Duck Test
"If it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, we have at least to consider the possibility that we have a small aquatic bird of the family Anatidae on our hands."
— Douglas Adams
Our call for “Rotation, Rotation, Rotation” highlighted in our latest quarterly investment outlook (click here), seems off to a decent start. At least in terms of rotation out of the “hottest” pockets of the market, such as semiconductor stocks, with the Philadelphia Semis index down another 4% in yesterday’s session:
The next stop could be around 11k, which is ‘only’ another 6% away from current levels.
Studying the SOX/SPX ratio, this definitely starts smelling like a duck bubble bursting:
The semiconductor sell-off is of course then also taking its toll on the Nasdaq, where, if the cash trading is as negative as the current futures trading, we have the completion of the diamond top discussed in this precious newsletter yesterday, and which would imply a drop to about 27k (-8%):
The S&P continues to look substantially more constructive, but the current weakness amongst tech stocks was enough to pull the index away from our (in)famous lines in the sand we have been observing and taking as trading guidelines for months now:
It is further important to note then, especially with respect to the rotation trade, that despite yesterday’s half percentage drop in the S&P 500, three times as many stocks were up than down on the day, leaving us with a pretty green market heat map:
Asian markets, with South Korea and Taiwan especially exposed to the Tech/Semi trade, are not offering a picture apt for the faint of heart:
Japan’s Nikkei is now correction hard within its cyclical uptrend channel:
Moving to other markets, US 10-year treasury yields are off their highs of late last week,
whilst European yields (German 10-year Bund yield) continue to push higher:
a final note on Gold, which I feel will drop below key support (lower dashed line) over the coming hours and see some form of capitulation (aka puke selling) in the coming days, after which some shards may be picked up again:
Another “chart of comfort” for our continued bullish view in equities, is the one of transportation stocks in the US. The iShares US Transportation ETF as a proxy for the segment is making new ATH after ATH, indicating that the US economy is running “hotter” than may be assumed:
All in all, this confirms our rotation-theory once again and explains the burstingn of the mini-bubbles in the more speculative segments of the market.
Yours truly is leaving on two weeks break - so unless all hell breaks lose in markets AND i am bored out of my mind, there will be not Daily Quotedian (letter formerly known as QuiCQ) until early August.
Be safe and May the Air-Conditioning be with You!
André
Everything in this document is for educational purposes only (FEPO)
Nothing in this document should be considered investment advice
Investing real money can be costly; don’t do stupid shit
Leave politics at the door—markets don’t care.
Past performance is hopefully no indication of future performance
The views expressed in this document may differ from the views published by NPB Neue Privat Bank AG