“Men are disturbed not by things, but by the views which they take of things.”
— Epictetus
For the full dashboard, please click on ‘Download’ below:
Quite the bloodbath that was, no?
As I have been writing rather extensively this week already, let’s dedicate today’s issue to a quick body count after yesterday’s slaughter. In other words, a ‘QuiCQ’ issue full of “fun” charts…
The straw that broke the camel's back was possibly Meta’s announcement the previous day that it would raise gazillions of new capital via a new non-voting share class (Zuck, you greedy little sod). Believe it or not, the market had a mental brain-fart fog moment,
and initially bought the stock on the news:
This pushed stocks over that edge we had been warning about in our quarterly outlook (click here) and in several of my recent missives.
The Nasdaq dropped, let’s be generous and call it three percent:
We might get a bounce on that dashed line today, but the minimum downside target would be the 200-day moving average.
The S&P 500 was down 1.2% on the session, but strangely enough is still only 2.5% away from the recent all-time highs:
Probably even less probable is that more stocks where up then down in that very same index:
Could this really mean … could it really … no way … but yes: the equal-weight version of the S&P 500 (below via the RSP ETF) was actually up! And not by a little!!
So, actually not so much of a bloodbath after all, but rather a market rotation going on … or let’s call it:
However, looking at other, international markets, it's a tad less rosy.
Here’s the SXXP:
Though as long as the index stays above the 200-day MA, not all hope is lost.
Japan’s Nikkei is in correction mode, being 15% off its August ATH, but was able to rebound today EXACTLY on its 200-day MA:
India’s BSE 500 continues to be one of the worst performers in the Asian Rim, and is in danger of falling out of the lower end of its triangle:
One warning sign for stock markets is that investors fled into (US) treasury bonds yesterday, in a clear sign of asset class rotation. Here’s the US 10-year Treasury yield, having dropped below the 5%-mark:
French investors continue to “enjoy” elevated yields:
Wait! Hang on! Those numbers on each of the previous two government bond yields…
Indeed!
For the first time in a long time (2012), French government bond yields are now actually higher than those of that Anglo-Saxon country across the Atlantic.
Blasphème!
Here’s another market that’s not going too well … precious metals.
Even though HOPE is a lousy investment strategy, let’s just HOPE that the neckline (red dashed) on the chart below does not break…
Implied price target would be … well, for those who do not want to know, let’s say implied price target would be lower.
For those who want to know:
2,400
Let’s finish today’s tour-de-chart with the US Dollar, where hopeful Dollar bears like yours truly look at the weekly chart and shout at the top of our collective throats: OUTSIDE ENGULFING PATTERN:
And hope for a trend reversal…
But as famed macro analyst James Aitken said on a podcast earlier this week (I paraphrase): One day we will wake up to a lower US Dollar, but in the meantime, as much as we would like to be dogmatic or even dramatic about the greenback, it is time to be pragmatic.
Not only Gold, but Silver also is at that make-or-break moment:
(sound of an empty swallow).
Not a lot of US earnings today (SLB, American Express), but some interesting ones in Europe (SIKA, ENI, Saab, Galderma).
Most exciting economic number out is the S&P Global’s US PMI’s series at 15:45 CET
Otherwise, pretty quiet, get ready for that weekend!
May the Trend be with You!
André
The Important One:
Everything in this document is for educational purposes only (FEPO)
Nothing in this document should be considered investment advice
Investing real money can be costly; don’t do stupid shit
Leave politics at the door—markets don’t care.
Past performance is hopefully no indication of future performance
The views expressed in this document may differ from the views published by NPB Neue Privat Bank AG
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