“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”
— Rüdiger Dornbusch
Yesterday was a day when it all made sense. Well, or at least as much as financial markets can make sense.
For example, you could look at the price of oil which traded noticeably lower,
and assume that (US) bond yields were lower too:
Or seeing that Bitcoin pushed above 80k (albeit it closed below that level again),
could have led investors to the conclusion that risk was on for equity markets too:
So, with NVDA (and CRWD and CRM) earnings out after the market close today, and then the market preparing for Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole appearance as US Fed Chair, we are maybe indeed living through the calm before the storm.
But before all that, let’s have a quick, closer look at some equity charts, starting with the S&P 500 daily:
We note that the August 4th opening gap has not yet quite been filled, but maybe it never will. On a positive note the index is holding above 21-, 50-, and 200-day moving average for now.
Zooming in on the same via a 4-hour chart, however, we also note that there has been a sequence of lower highs (pointed hands) and lower lows. The index has now a chance to break the pattern of lower lows if it can stay above the dashed line:
Supportive to equities should be that more stocks continue to hit new 52-week highs as compared to new 52-week lows,
on both sides of the Atlantic:
Accordingly, breadth (adv-decl) continues to move in an uptrend:
Little else to mention this morning, other than that Gold is consolidating its recent gains:
Whilst the US Dollar is licking its wounds after the also recent sell-off:
Neither has finished with its up- (Gold), respective down- (Dollar) trend quite yet in our books.
Heading Towards a Debt Crisis, One Trillion at a Time
As aforementioned, all eyes on NVDA today, tomorrow we may be in the eye of the storm, and the Friday Jackson Hole.
May the Trend (and the Force) be with us.
André
Everything in this document is for educational purposes only (FEPO)
Nothing in this document should be considered investment advice
Investing real money can be costly; don’t do stupid shit
Leave politics at the door—markets don’t care.
Past performance is hopefully no indication of future performance
The views expressed in this document may differ from the views published by NPB Neue Privat Bank AG