The Q - Daily Edition - 5/8/2026
Breakout!
"Events, dear boy, events."
— Harold Macmillan (former British Prime Minister)
My plan was not to publish a daily version of the Quotedian until later this month, but as former British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan Said in response to a journalist or questioner asking what is most likely to blow a government off course or knock leaders out of power: “Events, dear boy, events!”.
And we had an (price-induced) event yesterday - remember this chart?
Well:
Time to put the nail polish and beach balls away then and get those fingers back on the ‘buy button’.
Reason for the sudden release of the buying prowress? Well, one main trigger was probably a grown-up (US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent) saying yesterday that the US and Iran could reach an agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz to "freedom of movement" as soon as "today or tomorrow." This made not only the oil price drop in earnest,
but also lead to this aforementioned rally across (nearly all) global equity benchmarks:
However, I think, and we mentioned this in Monday’s Quotedian (click here), that the rally has also been induced by selling pressure abating after Leopold’s Situational Awareness fund (read about it here) was taken out of the game. This is clearly reflected in the outsized rally in the Nasdaq, which, however, is still a few percentage points shy of a new all-time high:
Opportunity? 😉
Global bond yields also dropped on the back of lower oil prices. Below the US 10-year US treasury yield:
Whilst we remain long-term bond bears, there may be a upside trading opportunity, which we had also highlighted in Monday’s Quotedian. The combination of the iShares 20+ years Treasury bond sitting on its long-term support line,
in combination with everyone and his mother bearish on bonds, as expressed in COT (Commitment of Traders) data,
could lead to a tradeable rally in duration.
One of those charts that makes you pause for a second. The Situational Awareness blow-up sits almost exactly where Long-Term Capital Management unravelled on the Netscape-to-ChatGPT timeline. The grey shading marks the When Genius Failed period.
ADP Employment data (ahead of Friday’s NFP)
ISM numbers
Earnings: Sandoz, Heineken, Infineon, Eli Lilly, Disney, Sandisk, Western Digitial, Honeywell, eBay, AppLovin, Albermarle, and many, many more
That’s all for now - May the Trend be with You.
André
Everything in this document is for educational purposes only (FEPO)
Nothing in this document should be considered investment advice
Investing real money can be costly; don’t do stupid shit
Leave politics at the door—markets don’t care.
Past performance is hopefully no indication of future performance
The views expressed in this document may differ from the views published by NPB Neue Privat Bank AG