The Q - Daily Edition
Zig Zag
“The market is a pendulum that forever swings between unsustainable optimism and unjustified pessimism.”
— Benjamin Graham
And just when you thought that the market is finally on a Zig higher, US President Trump comes with yet another curve ball, and Zag lower it is again.
According to Trump’s address to the nation last night:
War is "nearing completion"
Expect "Extremely hard" strikes for 2–3 more weeks
Regime change claimed but disclaimed — "we never said regime change, but regime change has occurred"
That second bullet point up there sounds a lot like “Boots on the Ground” to come over the next days. But maybe it’s just me…
Separately, in an interview with the Telegraph, he also leashed out against Nato.
The kangaroo market continues.
Hence, we remind ourselves for a third time this week that “never anything good happens below” the 200-day moving average and many major markets continues to trade below that hallmark or are at the cusp of doing so.
With Trump’s address to the nation having taken place after market close, there is little to observe from market internal indicators such as breadth, but of course are (equity) futures markets flashing deep red this morning and Asian markets, with an anyway higher sensitivity to energy price, also in full sell-off mood and mode:
In a nutshell, this morning’s ZAG is stocks lower,
bond yields higher,
oil higher,
US Dollar higher,
and Gold and Silver lower:
That’s the simple to implement but hard to foretell cross-asset macro trade going on at the moment …
Most of you are focused on the headline-grabbing equity markets, and therefore most of you are currently being boxed around by this kangaroo market…
But fret not, you are not alone.
Interest rate investors have gone from incorporating Fed rate cuts, to hike to now unchanged in just three weeks!
ZIG-ZAG … ZOG
Today is the last trading day off the week for nearly all global markets - and it promises to be fun!
Later today we’ll have US Initial and Continuing Claims, followed by tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payroll number.
Not one Easter shall go by without me putting up this silly, stone-age old joke:
Having that said, May the Trend be with You!
Everything in this document is for educational purposes only (FEPO)
Nothing in this document should be considered investment advice
Investing real money can be costly; don’t do stupid shit
Leave politics at the door—markets don’t care.
Past performance is hopefully no indication of future performance
The views expressed in this document may differ from the views published by NPB Neue Privat Bank AG