“You never know how strong you are until being strong is your only choice.”
— Bob Marley
Full Dashboard here:
First of all, a small apology to the readership of The Q … I have been logging in the dates with a one-time lag this week; e.g. yesterday’s issue read 19/8 i.o. 20/8. I promise, though, that all charts and opinions were up to date.
Let’s see if next week I can pull the trick and be one day ahead!
Also, this is going to be a brief Friday note, despite of everything going on. But we’ll have to have a longer discussion in the next weekly issue, as I am already hopelessly behind schedule today.
Let’s start today again with the bond side of things, as it is what matters most right now.
Probably much to Treasury Bessent’s frustration, yields at the long-end went right back to where they were before is “whatever it takes” pronouncement:
Mr. Bessent, one of the chaps responsible for ‘breaking’ the Bank of England back in 1992, should no better than anyone else, that Mr. Market will come back to test resolve.
Unsurprisingly, he already had his first tantrum yesterday:
“We’re going to increase the size of the buyback. I would note that it could be more than the $4 billion per issue.”
“We want to show that yields do not reflect underlying fundamentals.”
Treasury buyback “could be more than the $4 billion per issue.”
“Part of it is signaling.”
I recognise a man in despair when I see hear him…
Interestingly enough, whilst bond yields net-net have more or less returned to where they were pre-announcement, other asset classes have not.
Take Gold for example:
Or Bitcoin!
Of course, there must be other forces at work on the crypto segment too, and there are, but we’ll get back to that in our weekly issue.
Stocks continue to be somewhat of a sideshow, though yesterday’s weak results should not be taken ligthly as indication of the state of the US consumer:
The S&P itself gave back a bit less than a percentage point:
A test of that 7,600 level would be technically ideal, as it would enact the previous resistance now support and also ‘close’ that opening gap from August 4th:
It also allows to add a close-by risk reduction (aka stop loss) point to our bullish outlook.
Some stocks we mentioned as possible longs (see full article here), have corrected this week and may offer an entry opportunity.
One perfect example is our long-time favourite Crowdstrike (CRWD):
As I said, waaayy behind today’s curve already, so we’ll cut off here. As always, please feel free to pick up the dialogue via the comment section:
And also let me know if you would be interested to actively participate in a Substack based chat function, if I were to introduce that:
Have a great weekend, and remember, the Trend is always with You!
André
This, if true, and the source is not just anyone, is scary:
Everything in this document is for educational purposes only (FEPO)
Nothing in this document should be considered investment advice
Investing real money can be costly; don’t do stupid shit
Leave politics at the door—markets don’t care.
Past performance is hopefully no indication of future performance
The views expressed in this document may differ from the views published by NPB Neue Privat Bank AG