The Q - Daily Edition
Tom Hanks has COVID
“In war, truth is the first casualty.”
— Aeschylus
Just a quick note before heading of into a (hopefully very) interesting technology investor’s day…
Oil continues to grind higher. Here’s the price chart of Brent:
Bond yields in the US,
as those in Germany (below), the UK and Japan,
also continue to grind higher.
It remains therefore a conundrum (at least to me), how stocks have been able to hold up (see chart below and also COTD). As an example, the S&P 500 continues to range within its “box”:
Of course, other markets have seen a higher impact, as for example Germany’s intensive economy expressed via the DAX:
Maybe, as usual, and as I showed via a graph in Tuesday Daily Edition (click here), we truly also have to fade this geopolitical event and just blindly buy the (equity) market?
Or, is the equity market in denial, as it was back in February of 2020, when it hit a new all-time high as the COVID crisis was already well visible. It needed the headline “Tom Hanks has COVID” then to rattle up investors.
Having said that, enjoy your weekend and …
… May the Trend be with You!!
André
This year, barely just over two months old, has seen all kind of excitements:
The Madura capture in Venezuela
The Fed Chair succession Drama
The launch of Claude Opus 4.6 (with all kind of attached apps) having a deep (negative) impact on software stocks (see: FrankenstAIn)
US–Israel strikes on Iran (Operation Epic Fury)
And the list goes on …
So, surely stocks must have been all over the place, right?
Wrong!
As a matter of fact, the S&P 500 has seen its tightest range to start the year in history:
Amazing!
Eurozone Q4 GDP (third estimate) — 11:00 CET
ECB’s de Guindos at IIF European Summit, Brussels — 09:50 CET
ECB’s Cipollone at EIB Group Forum, Luxembourg — 11:45 CET
US Non-Farm Payrolls (Feb) — 14:30 CET (cons. +50K, prev. +130K)
US Unemployment Rate (Feb) — 14:30 CET (cons. 4.3%)
US Average Hourly Earnings (Feb) — 14:30 CET
ECB’s de Guindos hosts Martin Wolf lecture “The Crisis of the Liberal World Order” — 14:30 CET
ECB’s Lagarde delivers Annual Global Risk Lecture, Bologna — 18:00 CET
US Consumer Credit (Jan) — 21:00 CET
Earnings pre-market: DICK’S Sporting Goods (DKS), Hormel Foods (HRL), Embraer (ERJ)
FOMC meeting next week (March 17–18) — blackout period starts Saturday
Everything in this document is for educational purposes only (FEPO)
Nothing in this document should be considered investment advice
Investing real money can be costly; don’t do stupid shit
Leave politics at the door—markets don’t care.
Past performance is hopefully no indication of future performance
The views expressed in this document may differ from the views published by NPB Neue Privat Bank AG